How does savings rate develop in 2017? Do we receive a negative interest rate or an interest rate increase? You read it in the savings interest expectation.
Savings interest rates fell further
Savings interest rates fell further in the first half of 2017. The average interest rate for a freely withdrawable savings account is only 0.27%. A historic low point. Will this falling trend for savings rates continue in 2017 or is there a bright spot for savers in the Netherlands?
Update: this is the savings interest forecast for 2019.
Why is the interest rate low?
Before we give our expectation for savings, we first answer the question: “why is the interest low?”
The main reason for the low interest rate savings is the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB keeps its policy rates low so that saving becomes less attractive. In addition, bonds are purchased on a large scale.
The central bank hopes that consumers are more likely to spend money or to invest part of their savings. This should boost spending in the Eurozone and ensure more economic growth.
For the same reason, the mortgage interest is low and you can borrow cheap consumer money.
Savings interest expectation 2017
The main interest rate policy of the European Central Bank to influence savings rates is the deposit rate. This ECB interest rate was last reduced in March last year to -0.4%.
You read that right, the deposit rate of the ECB is now ‘ minus 0.4 percent’: negative. This means that banks pay money when they ‘park’ savings at the central bank.
The negative interest rate of the ECB is not (yet) fully passed on to the Dutch saver. However, the question is whether the banks can maintain this. The longer the current interest rate policy of the ECB continues, the further the savings interest rate falls.
We therefore expect savings interest rates to remain low for the time being and to fall further step-by-step. mail_outline Tip: Register for the Interest Rate Flash and do not miss a savings interest change.
Bright spot for savings interest
Mortgage interest has recently risen slightly. This does not immediately ensure that savings rates also rise. (read why the interest on savings does not immediately rise with the mortgage interest). Yet this is a bright spot for savers.
The rising mortgage interest rate is caused by the growing economy, also in the euro zone. If this economic growth continues, the European Central Bank will also adjust its interest rate policy over time.
However, there is little chance that the policy rate for saving will rise in 2017. In September, ECB President Draghi postponed changes in monetary policy until the fall. Then a decision is made about the purchase policy.
A change in the policy interest rate for saving is not currently under discussion. Although the economy is growing above expectations, inflation is not rising sufficiently. The price increase in the Eurozone is lagging behind due to low wage growth and expensive euros against the dollar.
Negative savings interest remains possible
The chance of a negative savings interest in the Netherlands remains. The mentioned banks do not yet fully pass on the negative market interest rate to the customer. The question is how long this will take. A new milestone has now been reached: a savings rate of 0%. Nevertheless, the Dutch Bank believes that it is unlikely that savings will become negative.
The Dutch are real savers. Possibly that is a reason why banks do not dare to charge a negative savings interest. It is striking that every interest rate cut is immediately followed by a series of interest rate cuts from other banks. Banks therefore pay close attention to each other. Nobody wants to be the first with a negative savings interest.